As I was betting on some Football games a thought came into my mind. Is it possible to know, and be sure how something will happen before it happens. Or, let me put the question this way, is it possible to predict everything, the entire future? And, if it is possible, then, Is everything already predetermined?
First, let us examine what is prediction! To predict something means to know what outcome will happen before any outcome happens. This means that you have enough Information of the variables, to calculate a probability rate of something happening.
This may sound science fiction but actually it is not fiction at all, it is only science. This happens everyday and almost everywhere around us.
Everything is About The Variables
Let us take weatherman for example. They collect enough data from the present situation, from scientific laws, currents, shape of clouds, statistics of previous weather, locations, period of the year, time, humidity of air, etc. and they calculate all of those variables to come up with a percentage of what the weather will be in the next couple of days. They are pretty accurate but there are times when even they are wrong. Why is this?
Everything is about the variables! Sometimes the data of the variables they are examining is not enough or some variables that are not taken in calculation play their part. If weatherman have enough data for the variables, like how atoms interact with each other through the whole world at exact time, they may tell how many rain drops will fall and even where each rain drop will fall. But, who is capable of processing that much data at once? Well the answer may not be in who but what.
What if there is a supercomputer that can process all that information? What if there is a computer that can process everything that happens in the world, every variable needed, to calculate the most likely outcome. What if there is a computer that can calculate what will happen tomorrow in 99% accuracy? For this to be possible the computer needs to gain data about each individual, each atom and not just in the present moment but at least a couple of days before the present moment. Also, it will need to collect data about social behavior and psychological profile of each individual.
Wow, yeah, that is a lot, I mean insanely a lot of information for processing. But, with the technology today and with all the social media that collects various information from almost each individual in the world, all the satellites around the Earth, isn’t it possible to build such supercomputer that collects enough data from every individual? Is it possible then, for the supercomputer, to calculate what will happen tomorrow, maybe not in 99% accuracy but let’s say in 70 or 80% ?
A New Mystery Called Quantum Mechanics
Well it was possible and it almost happened, but then, at the late 20th century a new perception showed the world that not everything is that easy to be predicted. All of the scientists were facing a new mystery called Quantum Mechanics and the world that was seen through QM was more bizarre than strange. Why?
Well let’s say you zoom in to the smallest particle and you examine it. By logic, you think that if that particle was a ball and you took that ball and threw it through a window it will fall at the other side following the trajectory that you have set with the power of your throw, the weight of the ball and The Gravity. We follow those rules, those laws of The Universe. By logic this should happen, right?
Not only the ball will not follow the trajectory but you may get hit by the same ball while another, exactly the same flies through the same window you threw the ball in or fall from the sky above you. Yeah, that is bizarre but it is true and it is strange only because we don’t know how things work on a quantum level yet. We don’t know how The Universe works as much as we think we know. We don’t know all the laws or variables, that is why we cannot predict anything with 100% certainty. That doesn’t mean we won’t learn in the future and that bizarre scenario won’t become normal.